India has a more balanced population compared with China
Though
the Chinese programme managed to curb the pace of population growth,
over time, it will result in the number of children per women remaining
below replacement rate while India fertility rate comes close to an
ideal two children per woman rate by 2035.
NEW
DELHI: The Communist Party of China's decision to relax the 30-year-old
single child rule underlines inherent weaknesses of the policy that
will see a sharp decline in women in child bearing age over the next 10
years while the number grows for India, generating more balanced
population growth.
Though the Chinese programme managed to curb the pace of population growth, over time, it will result in the number of children per women remaining below replacement rate while India fertility rate comes close to an ideal two children per woman rate by 2035.
The economic and strategic implications of an aging population are clear enough in terms of rising pension and healthcare costs, lower contributions from working generations and declining human workforce for industry and military service and seem to have been the prompt for the Chinese leadership to reverse a long standing decision.
Various studies, including a 2025 India-China projection by Rand Corporation, point to China's population growth turning negative sometime after 2025, while the population pyramid for India presents a more even picture.
The Chinese population pyramid shows the bottom layers shrinking in comparison to the ones above from 2000-2035, indicating a fertility rate that falls below replacement level. On the other hand, because India's fertility rate is above replacement level, the lower layers - or younger segments of population - are larger that older ones.
A narrower base indicates that less number of young people will be increasingly burdened with caring for a larger number of older persons, a scenario that is already visible in Chinese society.
India's short-lived brush with forcible birth control fortuitously ended with the Emergency and, over time, planners discovered the benefits of a population dividend while outbound migration went down. The utility of more evening of the aging population certainly depends on India's capacity to generate economic opportunities on a sustained basis.
For China, which has delivered impressive results in terms of health, education and gender equality, the more jagged shape of population pyramids in the years ahead a worrisome prospect. The bulges will move up the age cohorts, spelling rising burdens for the Chinese state and society.
While China has had a larger share of working age population for over four decades, going forward the number of youth in the under 15 age group will be larger for India. The dependency ratios for India will still see more youths than older persons depending on working age populations by 2035, providing hope of an expanding production base.
Though the Chinese programme managed to curb the pace of population growth, over time, it will result in the number of children per women remaining below replacement rate while India fertility rate comes close to an ideal two children per woman rate by 2035.
The economic and strategic implications of an aging population are clear enough in terms of rising pension and healthcare costs, lower contributions from working generations and declining human workforce for industry and military service and seem to have been the prompt for the Chinese leadership to reverse a long standing decision.
Various studies, including a 2025 India-China projection by Rand Corporation, point to China's population growth turning negative sometime after 2025, while the population pyramid for India presents a more even picture.
The Chinese population pyramid shows the bottom layers shrinking in comparison to the ones above from 2000-2035, indicating a fertility rate that falls below replacement level. On the other hand, because India's fertility rate is above replacement level, the lower layers - or younger segments of population - are larger that older ones.
A narrower base indicates that less number of young people will be increasingly burdened with caring for a larger number of older persons, a scenario that is already visible in Chinese society.
India's short-lived brush with forcible birth control fortuitously ended with the Emergency and, over time, planners discovered the benefits of a population dividend while outbound migration went down. The utility of more evening of the aging population certainly depends on India's capacity to generate economic opportunities on a sustained basis.
For China, which has delivered impressive results in terms of health, education and gender equality, the more jagged shape of population pyramids in the years ahead a worrisome prospect. The bulges will move up the age cohorts, spelling rising burdens for the Chinese state and society.
While China has had a larger share of working age population for over four decades, going forward the number of youth in the under 15 age group will be larger for India. The dependency ratios for India will still see more youths than older persons depending on working age populations by 2035, providing hope of an expanding production base.
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